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25 Марта 2017 суббота
Arayik Sargsyan16.05.2015  с помощью Russia.ru
Новая арена мировой бюрократии
Мнение Гейдара Джемаля
War in Ukraine is favorable to Europe?

Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.
At the end of September, 2014 we expressed the opinion that: "Creation of an autonomy in Donetsk and Lugansk" -

But an assessment of our experts didn't "reach" politicians in Washington, Brussels or in Kiev.

We would like will address to this subject today, after recent statements of a number of representatives of Donetsk that Donetsk agrees to be a part of Ukraine as an autonomy.

The head of the Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Zakharchenko told that doesn't intend to build the relation with Kiev provided that controlled by the armed supporters of DNR of the territory will remain part of Ukraine. Actually, contradictions between statements of representatives of DNR, and contradiction polar and mutually exclusive (or DNR an autonomy as a part of Ukraine, or this unrecognized independent state) proceeds.

Nevertheless, as the distinct understanding of what to do with Ukraine at the moment isn't present, and peace process within Minsk is at the level of the freezing point, due to the need of continuation of diplomatic game directed on creations of information simulacrum "we carry out the Minsk agreements", offers which on the one hand allow to express "a peacekeeping position" become, but are obviously unacceptable for Kiev as statement of a question — "we agree to be in Ukraine, but such, such and such", are torn completely off from the current Ukrainian reality as Ukraine at the moment not such as Russia would like or DNR (" the Donetsk People's Republic") and offered compromise conditions for a number of reasons are unacceptable for Kiev. And it I don't take into account a position of the USA, doing this diplomatic "dance" by even more insignificant within practical realization as vision of world Predominant force – the USA, completely contradicts desires of Russia yet. As there is quite to itself a clear understanding of that these offers won't be realized, the authorities of DNR and LNR them periodically and disprove, contradicting it would seem to own declared position. In fact, all these statements contradicting each other which look a time too schizophrenically, in practice are part of information fog of war which has no independent value, and the part of the Russian information line on the Ukrainian direction is.

Therefore it is possible to speak with confidence that will be told about "an autonomy of Donbass" still more than once, "federal Ukraine" and an imlimentation of the Minsk agreements and after that the same Zakharchenko or Carpenter's will speak so with confidence about independence and an invariance of a choice of Donbass made the people. And as more than once happened, the gap on time between these statements can make from several

hours about several days. In practice, within the general context of the conflict already a little that depends on a position of the leaders of the republics, as within the going war, destiny of DNR and LNR, only one of parameters (which elimination doesn't remove all causes of conflict), which is defined absolutely by other people, like what communicated in Sochi recently: "In Sochi Lavrov presented to Kerry baskets with potatoes and tomatoes, and also one box of the Armenian cognac, in replacements by the Crimea!"
Some ask why we are sure that Donbass to Ukraine won't return.

In our opinion, objective circumstances which mean where as more private a hotelok, made this process summer of the past, 2014 impossible still. There is such excellent expression "wars nobody wanted — war was inevitable". In Barbara Takman's book "August guns" on this example it is well shown how the governments and the military who were actually defining questions of war and peace in Europe tried to avoid war and as the logic of events pushed them to war and in the form in which nobody expected it and I didn't plan (with rare exception like Engels or the admiral Fischer). All of that time "cunning plans", like the French plan "17" or the German plan of "Shliffen" - failed and at the exit not so that war which was planned by "the cleverest people of the time" turned out.

During an era of domination of analytical strategy and a celebration of a determinism, complication of war and world around, sharply reduced predictive ability of that time "factories of thought" (which as a rule functioned as a part of the General Staff of MO) incapable to foresee even in the short term a war development vector:" Crisis in Ukraine was created by secret services of NATO"
Desires conflicted to objective circumstances which weren't considered or underestimated earlier.

And in a case with Donbass. Both parties:-both Kiev, and Moscow, during war made strategic and tactical mistakes (that is natural because behind any planning there are people in all their imperfection) in view of discrepancy of desires to a real situation and promptly changing circumstances which sometimes passed randomization side as it for example constantly occurs during infinite wars in the Middle East. It is possible to speak with confidence that such mistakes from both parties are possible and further (owing to besides imperfection of a human nature). The USA having missed the Crimea and having counted upon sanctions pressure, nowadays too appeared in a situation which was hardly predicted at stages of preparation of revolution and Yanukovych's exile from Kiev when there was a confidence that Russia will swallow all this and will be wiped. And when the miscalculation became clear and her tried to punish "quickly", it appeared that "quickly" it is impossible. Desires at this stage dispersed from opportunities therefore in the American military-political establishment and polemic on activization of policy on the Ukrainian direction is humming.

In the same way and at the Kremlin. In the spring of 2014 reunited with the Crimea, threw the thesis about "The Russian world", then were frightened of own courage (troops didn't enter, recognized criminals as partners, started suppressing degree of the events) and tried to win back back, and any more it didn't turn out because events developed parallel to painful throwings on .

I call all this situational maneuvring in the conditions of a strategic time trouble. As chess players speak in this respect:-"The time trouble is closer, the it is less than strategy more tactics". In the conditions of the extremely limited time and at promptly changing situation the temptation is great to make tactical decisions on the principle "threat answer". To this course of the opponent we go so, to this here so. And here the situation unpleasant developed, close to a tsugtsvang, any binding course worsens a position. Therefore and it is clear to pass desire the course (in the Kremlin it is confused to notorious "mnogokhodovochka") that the situation as if by itself was resolved or the opponent "blurted out". Are in passing constantly confused in questions — roofing felts of war want to avoid, roofing felts on the contrary — better for it will be prepared. The confusion in such questions results from absence of "the cunning plan of Putin", but not owing to his existence with which everyone simply tries to prove to give more logic to the events because for many the thought what not all events are under control, in itself is intolerable.

Long time was considered that it is possible to agree with opponents from Kiev, made concessions, limited support — it didn't yield results. Then under pressure of circumstances began from this that remained from fragments of the previous policy, started constructing two new states – DNR (Donetsk) and LNR (Lugansk) which else in February, 2014 and close weren't planned in the form in which they exist now. Then within attempts to freeze the conflict and notorious "truces", tried to let off steam and to tighten time in attempts to achieve change of a situation to avoid ill-fated "fork" between war and capitulation. Than all this ended, it is known. Therefore, everyone can see in a situation on Donbass anything — both plums and progress forward because at the same time manage to build the state and to declare that it not the state, but certain areas as a part of Ukraine. In my opinion, that build the state there, as if hints, that if seriously were going to give, there just the opposite shouldn't be built the state. I prefer to look not at words here, and at affairs. Affairs are that that Donbass continues "to sail" from Ukraine in uncertainty.

Owing to the organization of process, the full-fledged states still should be constructed as that that is now, it substantially the ersatz which is carrying out the state functions there. It is still too weak fully to operate the republics, but we mean already enough that it could be pushed in structure of other state with impunity. Certainly, there is a position that if Kiev will agree to a number of conditions, it will be already other Ukraine (not national, but federalizirovanny) and there it is possible to push Donbass quietly. But it only the desirable. The reality such is, every day of the state construction in LNR (Lugansk), possibility of real return of Donbass to Ukraine in any kind, looks ischezayushche improbable.

There is a mean joke "Donbass merged-merged, and it doesn't merge". Doesn't merge because the world already changed and DNR with LNR already became a factor of new reality which can't be cancelled on "click".

It is possible to close of course eyes and to pretend, what the republics of DNR and LNR aren't present, and there are ugly abbreviations of special areas what is an insignificant trifle but when unrecognized state educations in recent years were insignificant? On the contrary, the most part of such educations, chances of which survival initially looked doubtfully, finally remained. Practice of existence of such educations shows that they are quite hardy in the context of those contradictions which provide their emergence. Respectively, if certain circumstances and contradictions lead to formation of such unrecognized states, without elimination of these circumstances and contradictions, it is extremely difficult to beat out from under such educations the actual bases the providing their creation and existence. DNR and LNR already have such bases. The terrible price is already paid for them: "Crisis in Ukraine: ways of recovery from the crisis" -

In Washington and Kiev it is understood perfectly and therefore plans of Russia to include Donbass in structure of Ukraine for its reorganization in the Russian interests aren't fated to come true as as it stands Donbass for Ukraine is already an alien element protivorechushchy essences of modern Ukraine in her aktualyykh political realities. Donbass can return to Ukraine only as the measured region. On such conditions, is more true without any conditions - Ukraine won't receive Donbass also to it actually such anybody and doesn't offer though just it from Russia is demanded by Obama. Therefore disagreeing with plans of Russia for rearrangement of Ukraine and at the same time understanding unwillingness of Russia to hand over all positions in Ukraine, Kiev can only — continue one war within which there will be a further delimitation of Donbass and Ukraine: " Washington, London and Brussels decided to strike blow to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin" -. Especially nobody can distinctly объяснить: -" well will hand over Donbass, what it for Russia will change?" That to hand over that further? Crimea? Caucasus? Kaliningrad? After all by the text opened already it is declared that the question not only in Donbass and will be further the Crimea. There is no practical sense to turn the front on Donbass to receive it in the Crimea, on the Recop. As there is also no practical opportunity to exchange Donbass for the Crimea:" Crimea: way home-3. Continuation of the complex analysis of a situation across the Crimea A.P. Sargsyana" -

Obama, Merkel and Hollande already clearly designated, the transaction on this occasion won't be. To hand over Donbass to finish war, for a long time not option. It is possible either battle (one way or another), or to raise hands. Still Russia has no uniform center of planning and decision-making, fight of different Kremlin groups proceeds — one try to agree with Ukraine and to hand over Donbass (including

provoking all sounded tendencies), others give to Donbass help and prepare for war. As for military operations on Donbass, despite constant "increase of degree" of a change didn't happen yet. It is impossible to speak about continuation of "truce" because clashes (mainly near Mariupol and Donetsk) happen constantly, shellings of the cities increased (Gorlovka especially suffers), concentration of equipment and troops of the opponent doesn't stop, moreover — the Ukrainian UAVs (Bespilotny flying devices) everywhere became more active, according to some information Ukrainians prepare fighting aircraft for offensive actions. Novorossiya's militia since the beginning of month is up in arm. "A mass outcome" of the Russian volunteers (as write some) it isn't observed, but tendencies to that are. It is connected with a number of bad news from DNR and in particular from LNR. Problems arise both at certain Russian volunteers, and at voluntary divisions — in particular at Yarosh's "NBP members". In one cases to divisions don't allow to become stronger and expand (due to replenishments from the Russian Federation groups expand to a company, a battalion, but artificially squeeze it to a platoon, scattering fighters on other divisions), in other cases of people squeeze out, dismiss, and even "to the cellar" send (as now "NBP members"). I will tell frankly, on Donbass treat the Russian volunteers at least watchfully, owing to their bigger independence (and, as a result, not submission to control), than local. Not least it is connected with activity of some Moscow curators as we will tell Putin's adviser - V. Surkaov. I can't confirm, whether Surkov declined personally the leaders of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to repressions against the Russian volunteers (about what E.Limonov and B. Rozhin reported), but I know that "curators" in this direction work:" Geopolitical war for Ukraine: the Chinese trace" -

I will separately specify, so it turned out not thanks to some to "cunning plans of Putin" as I don't consider that everything developed as it was conceived, and it is rather because events on Donbass advanced and overturned analytical calculations and calculations. There is no blind belief, in that that "we will win despite everything" or desires to think up and justify next "the cunning plan of the Kremlin" about which hurry to tell all that it looked "even more cunning" and that the opponent thought up counteraction measures quicker. I look at logic of this war which already as became obviously many, won't end soon (and it on the present is terrible when fully you realize similar prospects) and will have dalekoidushchy consequences not only for Donbass, but also for Russia. And if ahead of us waits for continuation of war and continuation let of clumsy, but the state construction on Donbass, about what Donbass as a part of Ukraine in general can there be a speech in foreseeable prospect?" -

Arayik Sargsyan, the academician, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia, the President of Academy of Geopolitics.
Arayik_Sargsyan 23.08.2015
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